A mere two months ago that the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him over not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were an indicator or the source for the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. After the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win any of their first six games, find themselves just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard question to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
Per Opta, twice all season have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team who have put together 10 in a row, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to save the day with some crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more versus the Red Devils.
His opener originated from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they have to face in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder now would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. As the match-winner positioned himself before the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
